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Predictions in english Чемпионат Англии от BBC
Суббота, 04 Февраль 2012

All kick-offs 1500 GMT unless stated

SATURDAY

Arsenal v Blackburn

Arsenal v Blackburn (1300 GMT)

Arsenal's winless run in the league continued at Bolton on Wednesday night but apart from some wasteful finishing, I'm not sure there was too much wrong with their performance.

The Gunners created stacks of chances and also kept a clean sheet, although Arsene Wenger might be a little concerned that it was Wanderers, rather than his side, who looked more like scoring in the last 20 minutes or so.


I'd expect them to see off Blackburn easily enough, although Rovers were very unlucky not to get anything out of their game with Newcastle on the same evening

If there was ever a game where they needed Yakubu to be available, it was that one. They missed a penalty and just did not have the rub of the green in front of goal.

Blackburn's Chris Samba says he wants to play again, although Steve Kean still left him out against the Magpies ( and has said he will not feature against Arsenal ). You can kind of understand Kean wanting to prove a point there but now would be a very good time to bring him back.

Rovers have got 15 games left and I would say to Samba 'keep us up and you can leave in the summer' - that way, everyone is happy.

Prediction: 2-0

Match preview

Norwich v Bolton

Norwich v Bolton

Norwich generally bounce back really quickly from defeats so it will be interesting to see how they react to their defeat at Sunderland on Wednesday, when they were really flat.

The fact they did not really turn up at the Stadium of Light will be really galling for Canaries boss Paul Lambert, especially as he was up against Martin O'Neill, who he seems to have modelled his management style upon.

I think Lambert will be revving his players up for this game, but they are up against an improving Bolton side who appear to have found some form and confidence of late.

Wanderers boss Owen Coyle has been using a 4-5-1 formation with David Ngog on his own up front.

I am not Ngog's biggest fan but he fits the bill for that set-up because he runs in behind defences - I just think he needs an awful lot of chances to score goals - but it appears to be working and they played well against Arsenal on Wednesday.

They don't look like scoring many but at least they have stopped conceding after a spell where they always seemed to let in at least two a game.

Having Mark Davies back in midfield alongside Nigel Reo-Coker makes a big difference for them and, with Chris Eagles and Martin Petrov on the flanks, they have got a balance to their team. I still wonder where their goals are going to come from though.

Coyle kept hold of Kevin Davies in the end, and brought in Marvin Sordell from Watford, but he is going to take a while to adjust to the Premier League.

Prediction: 1-1

Match preview

QPR v Wolves

QPR v Wolves

QPR were very busy in the last couple of weeks of the transfer window and they have now got a massive squad, with players who can come on and change a game.

If Rangers boss Mark Hughes starts games with Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora, then he has got Heidar Helguson, Jay Bothroyd, DJ Campbell and Federico Macheda on the bench.

They have the numbers and I think they have the quality too, but now they have to start winning matches. This might be the perfect game for them from that point of view, because Wolves are low at the moment.

Even their owner Steve Morgan gave them a blast in the dressing room after Tuesday's defeat by Liverpool, which won't be a bad thing.

I'm sure Morgan asked for permission from manager Mick McCarthy first, and it might work because players need to hear it from a different voice sometimes. I know Morgan, and he will not have pulled any punches.

McCarthy's only bit of business on deadline day was to bring in Sebastien Bassong on loan from Tottenham but I think that was a good bit of business because I have not been convinced by the Wolves defence this season.

Roger Johnson has not recaptured the form he showed for Birmingham and Christophe Berra has made some bad mistakes. You look at them and think they don't have that towering influence at the back, and I think Bassong could provide it.

It's not all doom and gloom for them, either. Emmanuel Frimpong has been a good signing for them and Jamie O'Hara cannot be far away from a return to fitness.

I think Wolves have the qualities they need to survive a relegation fight but their biggest problem is that they have to start winning soon because their fans have become apathetic - their run of bad results is hurting McCarthy at the moment.

But they are playing QPR at precisely the wrong time - a few players will be making their home debuts for Rangers and the crowd will be making plenty of noise because of that.

Prediction: 2-0

Match preview

Stoke v Sunderland

Stoke v Sunderland

Sunderland just keep marching on, don't they? They were very convincing in victory against Norwich on Wednesday, including that sensational strike by Fraizer Campbell.

It is getting to the point where you look at games like that and think 'it was just another routine win for Sunderland', and they are up to eighth in the table now.

But Black Cats boss Martin O'Neill is not having things all his own way, because defender Wes Brown is out for a couple of months and midfielder David Vaughan is sidelined too.

In certain positions he is getting down to the bare bones which is why he brought in Sotirios Kyrgiakos and Wayne Bridge on deadline day and obviously he has got a decent striker back in Campbell.

Sunderland are the form team but they will get a big test at the Britannia Stadium. Stoke were never in the game against Manchester United at Old Trafford on Tuesday but they are a very different proposition at home.

I'm going for a win for the home side.

Prediction: 2-1

Match preview

West Brom v Swansea

West Brom v Swansea

West Brom have picked up 18 points on the road this season but they have been struggling at The Hawthorns.

They are a decent side but it seems they are playing as if they are expecting to lose and, like Wolves, they need to change that mentality.

I think it might happen for them on Saturday, too. Roy Hodgson's side will be boosted by Somen Tchoyi's late equaliser at Fulham on Wednesday and I have a feeling their poor run of form at home might just end here.

The Baggies might be a bit worried that they won't see much of the ball against Swansea but the Welsh side are not quite so effective on the road.

Both these sides are looking over their shoulders at the bottom five, who might get cast adrift if they are not careful, but they will know that a couple of wins now would give them some breathing space.

Prediction: 2-1

Match preview

Wigan v Everton

Wigan v Everton

Wigan's prospects look bleak - they are bottom of the Premier League with 15 points from 23 games.

Just say they are aiming for the magical 40 point mark and they need at least eight wins, which is more than half their games, to reach it.

I know all that has been missing for them when they have stayed up for the last couple of years has been Steve McQueen and the music from The Great Escape but, I just cannot see them staying up this time.

I like Wigan, and their manager Roberto Martinez, because they are a friendly well-run club but I just feel it is their year to face the drop.

Their problem is that if you get a goal against them, they help you get more - it is rare they stay in games after going behind.

They have averaged less than one goal a game all season, don't look like scoring enough to win games, and they always give you chances. That is not a great combination, to put it mildly.

The Latics have been in the relegation zone since October and have never looked like getting out of it. Some of their individual players are good enough but, collectively, they don't get it together often enough.

Everton were like the Everton of old in their win against Manchester City on Tuesday, and they look in much better shape than they did at the start of the month.

At that point, it almost seemed as if Toffees boss David Moyes was back to where he started when he took over 10 years ago, but a lot has changed since then. Moyes has signed Landon Donovan, Darron Gibson, Steven Pienaar and Nikica Jelavic.

Against City, they were missing a few players but they didn't half scrap and that was the key for them - some of the City players did not like being tackled!

This game presents a different problem, though, because, unlike on Tuesday, they will be expected to win it. Replicating the level they reached against City will be difficult, which is why I am only going to tip them to get a point at the DW Stadium.

Prediction: 1-1

Match preview

Man City v Fulham

Man City v Fulham

Manchester City had a bad result in midweek against Everton but I think they will get back on the horse at the Etihad Stadium, where they have won all 11 of their league games this season.

I actually think their manager Roberto Mancini was quite clever to come out and say 'it was my fault' after that defeat at Goodison Park. You can't do it too often, but I think that was his way of saying to his players 'forget about it and move on'.

In a funny way, the guy they really missed on Tuesday, apart from Nigel de Jong, was Carlos Tevez. He is exactly the sort of player you want in a game like that.

I know Tevez is probably not going to come back into the picture at City but, if he doesn't go somewhere else this season, I just wonder whether someone there might say 'you know what, we are paying a fortune for this bloke, why don't we try and use him?'. Stranger things have happened.

And why not give it another go? There is nothing to lose, even if Tevez says no. You say to him, 'I think you have made a massive mistake and you have wasted the season so far but you can come back and try to help us win the league'.

It's a win-win situation for club and player because he gets himself fit and he sells himself for when he does leave in the summer.

If he apologises, the players would welcome him back into the fold because he is such a good player. It would be like a new signing. I hate it when players refuse to play but if I were Brian Marwood, City's football administration officer, I would be trying to broker some sort of deal.

As for Fulham, well they will miss Bobby Zamora but they are still evolving under Martin Jol.

Zamora's exit had been in the pipeline for a while, although they denied it. Jol is not exactly short of strikers, even before he signed Pavel Pogrebnyak on deadline day but Zamora still gave them something different - a presence.

He had the ability to make Fulham play the way he wanted to. It's what happens with good players.

Zamora held the ball up so Moussa Dembele could play off him, and it allowed Dempsey to come in from wide positions and get goals.

From Zamora's point of view, though, he had one big move left in his career at the age of 31 and he has had a pools win and a lottery win at the same time - he won't be on any less money at QPR than he was at Fulham and he also doesn't have to worry about having to move house. There is no upheaval for him at all.

Prediction: 3-0

Match preview

SUNDAY

Newcastle v Aston Villa

Newcastle v Aston Villa

I think there is a bigger story at Aston Villa than their results under their manager Alex McLeish.

The only players they signed in January were Robbie Keane on loan and a young full-back called Enda Stevens. It appears it is all about profit and loss and the balance sheet at Villa Park, with chairman Randy Lerner saying 'we cannot spend more than we earn, end of'.

Consequently, you look at Villa and you see a mid-table side. People say they are a big club, but they're not. They were a big club but they aren't anymore, just like you could say Liverpool are not as big as they were. Those are the facts.

As for the game, Newcastle will have Demba Ba and Papiss Demba Cisse back from the Africa Cup of Nations, which will be another boost for them.

Wednesday's win at Blackburn was a really important one for them. The Magpies didn't play well, and at times they were out-played but they still nicked an away win in the Premier League. I'm told that Fabricio Coloccini has been great as a captain, not just as a player, and they have got a great spirit in their squad. Well, they showed it at Ewood Park.

I thought Newcastle's form would drop off in the New Year but they have proved me wrong and done marvellously by winning four of their last six league games. I have to back them here.

Prediction: 2-0

Match preview

Chelsea v Man Utd

Chelsea v Man Utd

Manchester United will have a whole host of players back - the likes of Wayne Rooney and Phil Jones - so they will be strong, but it is difficult to know what to expect from Chelsea.

Andre Villas-Boas is still trying to change the way his Blues side play, and he is doing it slowly but surely. In contrast, it is all about the here and now with United.

I think we will see Sir Alex Ferguson's side play on the counter-attack, like they did against Arsenal a couple of weeks ago but I'm not sure they will have it all their own way.

I was at Old Trafford when these teams met earlier in the season and I thought Chelsea were really unlucky to lose 3-1. They created lots of chances, and Fernando Torres scored a really good goal but also had a shocking miss. I think they will run United close again.

People say United haven't been playing well but, to be fair to Ferguson, that has never bothered him.

From January to May, he knows success is nothing to do with playing well, it is all about results. I suspect occasionally when he does get a 4-0 or a 5-0 win he is wary of people getting carried away.

He would take a 1-0 win all day, although I don't think he will get one at Stamford Bridge. It might be a case of points dropped but you just know United are going to go the distance in this title race. They just won't go away.

Prediction: 1-1

Match preview

MONDAY

Liverpool v Tottenham

Liverpool v Tottenham

This fixture is the only one Kenny Dalglish has lost at home in the league since coming back as Anfield boss in January 2011, a 2-1 defeat in May of that year where Tottenham completely outplayed Liverpool, especially across midfield.

Liverpool are a different proposition now, and have just had three very good results against Manchester City, Manchester United and Wolves, but I am probably inching towards a draw here, which is hardly sticking my neck out because Liverpool tend to draw at home a lot.

If I were Kenny Dalglish - and I think his tactical changes against United won the game last weekend - I would probably keep things tight. You need to put a barrier in midfield to stop Spurs playing, and we've seen Liverpool do it before.

One factor which might stop Dalglish doing that is his dilemma up front because Andy Carroll has started to look like his old self lately and now Luis Suarez is available, so what should he do?

The reason Carroll has just started to get his strength, touch and belief back is because he has been playing regular games, so do you sideline him again now?

Or do you bring in Suarez and go with two up top against Tottenham at home, leaving yourself open to being ripped apart in midfield? You'd have to think not.

Tottenham were another team who were busy on deadline day. Signing Louis Saha is an interesting one because, as all the players at Everton will tell you, he is a good player but your first problem with him is getting him on the pitch, because he does get injured very easily.

If Saha is fit, he will get you a goal and I can see Harry Redknapp's thinking because he has a team that has got pace down the flanks and some really clever players like Luka Modric and Rafael van der Vaart.

Redknapp is probably thinking that Saha might not start too many games, but he also knows he can give him something a little bit different when he does feature.

Prediction: 1-1

Match preview

Mark Lawrenson was talking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan.


Источник: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/16857991 
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