1 point Philadelphia @ 1.74

00:05 GMT Philadelphia @ Florida

A pitching mis-match here and the Phillies fall into a solid pitching system here that says play on any team whose starter has a better than 3:1 strikeout to walks ratio in last three games pitched versus an opponent whose starter has more walks than strikeouts in last three games pitched.

Jon Lieber is in awesome KW form with 13 strikeouts and just 1 walk in his last 3 starts overall. The Marlins Scot Olsen is in terrible KW form with more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts overall.

For added good measure, Florida are 2-14 when the total is 7 to 8.5 runs.