Free sport tips

Spain vs Austria — 2:0

It's quite possible that Austria will cover the +2 handicap, but one thing that stands out is that they concede in every match. To be honest, I've watched them play and I'm not impressed. To me, they resemble Switzerland in terms of style. That's enough to get out of the group, but I think that's as far as they'll go.

Spain have had their own shaky moments too. I'll leave the Cape Verde match aside—that felt more like promoting smaller football nations and sending the message that "if Cape Verde can do it, why can't you?" It also helped justify expanding the tournament to include teams that spend 90 minutes defending with their entire squad inside the penalty area.

Spain usually perform better against teams like Austria because they don't sit as deep, leaving spaces that Spain can exploit with precise passing. I understand those backing Austria who point out Spain struggled against Uruguay, but that game was probably all about managing the result. I also expect this one to be fairly pragmatic. Spain will dominate possession as usual and complete hundreds of passes, while Austria will likely play according to the scoreline, hoping their forwards can make the most of limited opportunities.

My predictions:

• Spain over 1.5 goals — 1.47. This isn't England vs DR Congo with a similar price, but as mentioned above, Spain find it easier against less defensive teams than against opponents who defend inside their own box for 90 minutes.
• Will Austria score? They might, but I still expect them to concede because they've allowed goals in every match, and even Algeria managed to score three.
• Spain to win & total over 1.5 — 1.55
• Lamine Yamal to score anytime — 2.10 (a very attractive price)
• Austria over 1.5 shots on target — 1.49. Possible if they're trailing and have to push forward.

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Portugal vs Croatia — 1:1

I asked an AI to compare the teams' average possession, distance covered by their starting players, and other performance metrics. According to some of those indicators, Croatia actually came out ahead. Add to that the fact that Portugal have essentially beaten only Uzbekistan, and the overall picture isn't especially encouraging.

However, looking at the last 10 meetings since 2005, Croatia have won just once.

Most of the remaining matches ended with Portugal avoiding defeat, and only one game covered a -1.5 handicap (a 4-1 win).

That's why I expect a tight, physical match that could easily go all the way, with Portugal once again having the edge if it comes down to penalties. That's traditionally one of their strengths.

I wouldn't even rule out a 0-0 draw. Croatia are comfortable playing according to the score. If it's 0-0, they won't force the issue. If they fall behind 1-0, they'll push forward a few times and someone is likely to find a goal.

My predictions:

• Croatia +1.5 handicap — 1.45
• Both Teams to Score is priced too low at 1.70 for this type of match. I'd rather wait 20 minutes into the first half before deciding whether the teams came to attack or simply manage the score.
• Portugal or Draw & Under 4.5 Goals — 1.39
• Over 2.5 offsides — 1.49
• Over 20.5 total shots — 1.48

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Switzerland vs Algeria — 2:1

I expect a tight game, perhaps even 1-0 or 0-1, where a single mistake decides everything. Switzerland usually play pragmatically and adapt to their opponents. If the game opens up, they can score four, but if not, they'll gladly settle for a 1-0 win.

What about Algeria? Their only win came against a weak Jordan side, and they drew with Austria in what looked like a very questionable match.

Switzerland comfortably beat Bosnia 4-1 and defeated tournament hosts Canada 2-1. Against Qatar, they led 1-0 until the closing minutes after Breel Embolo missed numerous chances.

My predictions:

• Switzerland to score before the 75th minute — 1.45
• Switzerland or Draw & Over 1.5 Goals — 1.68
• Algeria over 1.5 yellow cards — 1.83
• Over 19.5 total fouls — 1.44
• Switzerland over 1.5 offsides — 1.54
• Switzerland over 11.5 total shots — 1.55

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