NBA Betting Systems: Tips & Strategies for Total Picks

Use SBR's NBA Betting Systems Guide as an aid to help you find the best value when making plays on the total. What trends can you use to make sure you are on the right side of the line with your NBA picks?
The NBA has a long season that often has a few twists and turns. There’s the early part of the season before Christmas where you wonder which teams are overachieving and which teams haven’t even woken up yet. Then there’s the middle part of the season where we start to see everyone’s true colors and then there’s the home stretch where some teams push for the playoffs and others simply quit while trying to get a better draft pick.

When you add all of that up, it seems like betting systems would be ineffective in the sport. However, we’ve compiled a small list of NBA betting systems that basketball bettors have used in the past and found to be quite profitable. The recommendation is that you don’t strictly rely on these systems and instead, use them to supplement your regular handicapping.
High Total System
This is a system courtesy of Allen Moody over at About.com and this strategy focuses on betting games where the totals are particularly high. This system only has two criteria and it’s very simple: first off, you need to find games where the totals are 220 or higher and secondly, the matchup has to be non-conference. At that point, you add the over to your NBA picks.
The records show that from 2004-05 to 2008-09, the record was 31-18, which is about 63.5%. Given the winning percentage, it’s definitely worth keeping in your repertoire.
Low Total System
If you’re thinking that the Low Total System is the opposite of the High Total System, think again. It was a fair assumption, though.
This system has a little less logic to it as all you do is bet under on the lowest total on the NBA odds board as long as there are at least four games being played that night. While it may seem like it doesn’t make much sense to just bet blindly on the under on the lowest total on the board, the thinking here is that the public loves to bet overs and historically, overs haven’t cashed in most of the time.
So what you’re banking on is the public pushing the numbers up on what the NBA odds makers believe to be the lowest-scoring game of the night. Wait under game time to get the best value with this system.
Home-Away Totals System
Lastly, we’ve got another system courtesy of Allen Moody at About.com and this one is a strategy that examines how teams play at home versus how they play on the road.
In this system, we are looking at the average combined score of the games of a specific team when they are at home and comparing it to the same thing when they are on the road. For example: let’s say the Los Angeles Lakers score 99 points per game at home and allow 91, and score 105 per game on the road and allow 95, that gives them an average total of 190 at home and 200 on the road.
The next step is to compare the two averages (190 and 200) and if the difference is more than five points, you bet the totals accordingly. So in this case, you would bet over on the Lakers road games and under on the Lakers home games.
You need a body of work from the teams before you can start betting this system, which means you only use it after January 1st.